Good morning everyone, let’s get started. Interesting Consumer Price Index data came out just a minute ago at 8:30, and we’re seeing inflation numbers come down some, which means the market is bumping. It’s bumping pretty good, but we’ll see if that carries over into the live session.
What we’re looking at here is the hourly up channel, and you can see that the price is coming in right at the top of that channel on this little bump. So we’ll see if that actually carries over because if it carries over, then we’ve got a nice little breakout of this. On the daily chart, we’ve also got a wedge pattern, and we’ve got quite a ways that price can move up, up to the like 410-ish 411 before it gets really oversold in this wedge. So there’s some room there.
Today is the end of the weekly candle and end of the monthly candle. That monthly candle is not looking too bad, but the monthly chart shows that we’re still below the monthly 20ma and this is where the price has been ever since last April, so almost a year, just going sideways up underneath this with the monthly moving average. The 20ma is pointing down, so overall, it’s still bearish, but it’s more of a consolidation here in this area, and we’ll just have to keep watching that.
Obviously, you’ve got to really get over 420 to break this, and until that happens, I mean, I said this last year, price could just go sideways for a very long time, and that is just how it is. So into this monthly candle though will be more bullish than bearish, but until we get over 420, it’s really nothing to write home about too much.
The weekly chart just shows more consolidation in this area. Maybe we get continuation next week up to 410, and we’ll see how that kind of continues out next week.
Back down to the hourly chart again, this top of the channel here is what’s important, and this little pre-market bump, this little one little five-minute candle that went up and made a new overnight high could be all there is, so we’ve got to sort of watch that at the open. That’ll be the first thing that we watch, watch the overnight high, and let’s zoom in on it a little bit and watch how it reacts on this.
405 45, 404, obviously all these areas 403 is the key, and if the price can at least hold 403, I’m still going to count that as pretty bullish until we get below 403. Below yesterday’s low would be making a new low, so that would be a sign for sellers to take a little bit more control of the market.
Really before we get below that though, nothing too much is going to happen. The market bumping on the inflation data is really just a reaction that the FED doesn’t need to step up rates anymore, and that’s what the last two weeks have really been about. Is the Fed going to raise rates more and more, or are they going to slow down those rate hikes? And of course, nobody really knows that, but they’re taking the Consumer Price Index data as a sign that maybe the Fed, who is really concerned over inflation, doesn’t need to do anything more, and that would be bullish because that means no more rate hikes or lesser rate hikes.
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