Good morning for the week of August 1st, this is your SPY weekly outlook

Last week we saw a large bounce in SPY after the FOMC and AAPL/AMZN earnings caused QQQ to close its monthly chart with a bullish engulfing candle. SPY’s monthly candle is more inside, but is weighted tech heavy so this is noteworthy. The DOW lagged a little, which puts SPY in between. However, the DOW has not dropped as much as QQQ, so tech had more to gain.

On the weekly chart, SPY finally close above its weekly 20ma which is also very bullish and noteworthy. We’ll be looking to see if SPY can hold this ground this week. Our weekly pivots for this week are:

  • R2 = 428.07
  • R1 = 420.03
  • Pivot = 404.99
  • S1 = 396.84
  • S2 = 381.91

The daily chart is quite extended, but has plenty of room to hold above 400 if it needs to go sideways some to get traction. All the daily moving averages we watch (the 5, 10, and 20) are pointing up with a daily dead cross averted last week.

In the way of economic data this week we have::

  • Monday
    • 9:45 PMI Manufacturing Final
    • 10am ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
  • Tuesday
    • JOLTS at 10am
  • Wednesday
    • 9:45 PMI Composite Final
    • 10am Factory Orders, ISM Services Index
  • Thursday
    • 8:30am Jobless Claims, Int’l Trade
  • Friday
    • 8:30 Employment Situation

Earnings begins to quiet down this week, at least from the perspective of large SPY weighted stocks. Some good ones to watch for earnings plays would be AMD, PYPL, SBUX, AMC.

William Wallace